Economy and Taxes

Eugene Steuerle, one of the nation's most respected public policy experts, whose portfolio ranges from taxes and federal spending on children to entitlements and the vitality of nonprofits, has rejoined the Urban Institute as an Institute fellow and the Richard B. Fisher

Suppose that a taxpayer earns an additional dollar of income. How much tax would she owe on that dollar? A natural way to answer this question would be to look up the taxpayer’s statutory tax rate - the tax rate corresponding to her tax bracket and filing status.

This paper examines the characteristics and circumstances of families vulnerable to sharp income drops and those most likely to recover financially. More than 13 percent of nonelderly adults in families with children will see their incomes fall by half at some point over the course of a year, and about 40 percent fully recover within a year. Those who lose jobs or have an adult leave the family are more likely to have a substantial drop in income and are less likely to recover. This study uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, which collects data every four months and can provide information on short-term income loss.

The Congressional Budget Office's most recent long-term budget outlook declared that "current policies are unsustainable." Translation, according to tax scholar Len Burman: if we don’t change course, we're doomed. America will celebrate its tricentennial with IOUs 6.5 times its total economic output if current policies continue, CBO says, and that is under implausibly optimistic assumptions about the economy.

The alternative minimum tax (AMT), which originally targeted high-income taxpayers, requires annual legislation to prevent it from affecting millions of middle-income individuals each year. There are two primary reasons for the AMT’s broadening impact; its parameters are not indexed for inflation and the 2001-2006 tax cuts reduced regular tax liability without changing AMT liability. In 2009, four million taxpayers will pay $33.5 billion in AMT, but without congressional action that number will rise to 27 million owing $102 billion in 2010. This paper describes the AMT and provides TPC’s latest estimates of AMT coverage, revenue, and distribution.

Mapquest the route to tax reform and health reform and all roads lead to the Senate Finance Committee. Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a member of its health care and taxation subcommittees and chair of its global competitiveness subcommittee, has long been a proponent of making the tax code simpler, free of loopholes, and fairer to all Americans. Wyden will use the debut of the Tax Policy Center’s new Tax Reform 2.0 series to describe the tax aspects of the health care reform bill currently under debate in the Finance Committee and the alternatives laid out in his own health care reform bill, the Healthy Americans Act (S. 391). In addition, he will share his view of the prospects for comprehensive tax reform in 2010 and explain his own tax reform legislation, the Fair Flat Tax Act of 2007 (S. 1111).

Data from the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances show a disturbing reality. Even prior to the current recession, many families did not have enough assets to see them through a modest spell of unemployment or another financial emergency. In 2007, nearly one in three U.S. families were liquid asset poor. Low-income, young, and nonemployed families are more vulnerable to economic emergencies. For example, two-thirds (68 percent) of bottom income quintile families and 47 percent of second income quintile families are liquid asset poor, while such shortfalls affect only 1 percent of top income quintile families.

This paper reviews the literature on poverty dynamics in the United States. It surveys the most prevalent data, theories, and methods used to answer three key questions: How likely are people to enter, exit, and reenter poverty? How long do people remain in poverty? And what events are associated with entering and exiting poverty? The paper then analyzes the combined findings of the literature, discussing overarching patterns of poverty dynamics, differences among demographic groups, and how poverty probabilities, duration, and events have changed over time. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings and avenues for future research.

Between 2007 and 2008, real incomes fell and poverty rose in the United States, Institute Fellow Harry Holzer testified before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Even if the recession ends this year, rising unemployment will mean that real income keeps falling while poverty increases for a few more years — and almost certainly by much more than occurred between 2007 and 2008. It will likely take several years beyond 2010 before real income and poverty fully recover from the effects of the downturn.

President Obama's tax reform task force has been asked to propose ways to close the $300 billion tax gap, which is the estimated difference between taxes owed and taxes paid either voluntarily or through enforcement. But the amount of money lost to legal tax avoidance - the difference between an income tax without special tax preferences and taxes under current law - at least double that lost to outright evasion. The perpetrators of this second, "avoidance" tax gap are legislators, not taxpayers. The panel's main focus should be on finding appropriate ways to close this second tax gap.