Publications on Federal Budgets & Fiscal Policy

Nearly half of all tax units will pay no income tax in 2009. The fraction of non-taxpayers differs widely, depending on income, tax filing status, and whether the unit is elderly or contains children.

his paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions leave federal policy makers with difficult choices. Over the next several years, as the recession ends and the economy recovers, policy makers will face a delicate balancing act between encouraging economic recovery and establishing fiscal sustainability. Even if a successful recovery ensues, however, medium-term and long-term fiscal problems have become increasingly urgent.

The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens raised, or other spending decimated, deficits and the national debt will explode. It is difficult to imagine solving the entire budget problem by slowing spending growth, because benefits would then be far below those previously promised. It is equally unlikely that tax increases could solve the whole problem because the tax burden would then be so far above any ever experienced by Americans. To the extent that tax burdens are to be increased, there are three options. Tax rates could be raised in the existing system, but that would be extremely inefficient. Tax reform might raise revenues more efficiently, but that is excruciatingly difficult politically. That leaves the possibility of a brand new tax and a VAT is a very likely candidate.

In this commentary for SpotlightOnPoverty.org, Institute Fellow Olivia Golden lays out five strategic investments foundations can make to sustain the economic stimulus package's positive outcomes for low-income families.

More than 10 million Americans require long-term care supports and services. Yet the system for delivering and paying for this assistance is deeply flawed. While most of the frail elderly and those with disabilities prefer assistance at home, many must live in nursing homes to receive Medicaid benefits, care coordination for those with multiple chronic illnesses is poor, and the system for financing care impoverishes many middle-income families. The national health reform debate allows policymakers to reconsider long-term care as well. This paper assesses proposals to restructure the delivery and financing of long-term care services.