Federal Budget Issues

The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens raised, or other spending decimated, deficits and the national debt will explode. It is difficult to imagine solving the entire budget problem by slowing spending growth, because benefits would then be far below those previously promised. It is equally unlikely that tax increases could solve the whole problem because the tax burden would then be so far above any ever experienced by Americans. To the extent that tax burdens are to be increased, there are three options. Tax rates could be raised in the existing system, but that would be extremely inefficient. Tax reform might raise revenues more efficiently, but that is excruciatingly difficult politically. That leaves the possibility of a brand new tax and a VAT is a very likely candidate.

Older Americans face an uncertain retirement future. Policies are urgently needed to shore up Social Security and Medicare, get health care spending under control, and make staying in the labor force at older ages easier, while still protecting disabled workers. This policy brief summarizes a wide-ranging discussion of retirement issues to explore how public policies might adapt to an aging population.

In this Press-Enterprise (Riverside, California) commentary, John Holahan explains that Medicaid has done a good job of keeping costs under control and that its increase in spending is caused by the swelling number of enrollees, particularly in a weak economy. The 7 million people eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare are not dealt with in a cost-effective way, though, and transferring responsibility for them to the federal government would pave the way for health reform.

The article considers special federal tax provisions affecting the elderly. It examines the taxation of Social Security, private retirement accounts, estate taxation and other provisions of the law that mention age. It also analyzes how the elderly might be affected by tax increases necessitated by the dismal long-run budget outlook. In particular, it looks at the possibility that we shall become more reliant on consumption taxes.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette op-ed, September 28, 2008. The current financial crisis poses a severe threat to the economy, but it also creates a tremendous opportunity, writes Rudolph Penner in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It gives politicians cover for undertaking painful actions to get the long-run deficit under control-actions that should have been taken long ago.